Know where your input costs are heading before your contracts are signed.

Headwater Intelligence delivers monthly commodity price direction forecasts for industrial manufacturers, translated into a single actionable recommendation.

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Three steps. No jargon.

01

We monitor the signals

A proprietary system tracks the leading indicators that move your commodity inputs months before prices shift: manufacturing activity, trade flows, energy costs, global production data.

02

You receive a clear monthly recommendation

Each month, we distill the signal into a plain-English direction and a specific recommendation for your contract and purchasing decisions. One page. One call. Built around your operation.

03

You act on it

Adjust your contract mix, time your purchases, update your customer pricing before costs move. The lead time maps directly onto standard industrial contract and quoting durations.

The signal has a history.

Every model we deploy is built on a decade of walk-forward, out-of-sample history. We never evaluate on data the system was trained on. Each commodity we cover has its own dedicated model, held to the same standard: strong directional accuracy across multiple market regimes before we stand behind it.

We share full methodology and historical performance data during the introductory process.

Historical accuracy is not a guarantee of future performance.

What accurate procurement intelligence is worth.

Representative client: a $40M industrial manufacturer with $5M in annual commodity purchases.

Value Layer Mechanism Annual Value
Inventory timing Buy ahead of price increases, defer purchases before decreases ~$90,000
Contract structure Shift fixed vs. spot mix based on signal direction ~$40,000
Customer pricing Issue surcharges before costs rise, hold pricing as costs fall ~$150,000
Total ~$280,000

Based on measured model accuracy and a client that acts consistently on recommendations. In volatile years, the combined value is substantially higher.

Narrow focus, by design.

Client profile

  • Industrial manufacturers with $20M to $150M in annual revenue
  • Commodity inputs representing 35% to 60% of cost of goods sold
  • Privately held or family-owned, where one or two people make procurement decisions
  • No dedicated in-house commodity analyst or procurement intelligence function
  • Customer relationships where pricing is set in advance and timing matters

What you receive each month

  • A one-page report with the current reading and recommendation
  • A 20-minute advisory call to discuss implications for your specific operation
  • A clear, plain-English recommendation tailored to your operation
  • Direct access to our team between calls when market conditions shift

Commodity coverage

  • Ferrous metals: steel bar, steel sheet, finished steel products
  • Non-ferrous metals: copper, aluminum, nickel, lithium
  • Industrial chemicals: chromium compounds, polymer resins
  • Energy: natural gas, uranium, crude derivatives
  • Building materials: lumber, structural timber products
  • Agricultural: corn, soybeans, wheat
  • Coverage is expanding steadily. If your primary input is not listed, ask.

Industries with strong fit

CNC-machined parts manufacturers. Plastic injection molders. Regional metals service centers. Industrial pump, valve, and fluid control manufacturers. Electric motor and generator manufacturers. Commercial HVAC equipment manufacturers. Hydraulic cylinder and pneumatic actuator manufacturers. Agricultural equipment OEMs. Wire and cable manufacturers. Hard chrome and industrial electroplating job shops.

Introductions by request.

We take on a small number of clients per commodity vertical. If your operation fits the profile above, we are worth a 20-minute conversation.

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We respond to every inquiry within one business day. We do not use your information for any purpose other than evaluating fit.

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